Ladies and Gentlemen,

Honored guests,

Dignitaries,

I am really delighted to be here at the invitation of President He and my own graduate, Dr. Roberta Wong Leung, who is the Dean of the School of Hotel, Tourism and Catering for Shunde Polytechnic. When she invited me to speak, present before this group, it was very hard for me to say no. I’ve just come back from Shandong only a few short weeks ago and didn’t really want to get on another airplane. But I said well, since it’s for your new university and since it is in the province of the birth of my ancestors – my parents were born in Taishan, so I said “Well, I’ve got to come.” So here I am, bring in you Aloha from the State of Hawaii. I gave a, er…, I gave a long thought to what I would present to you this morning and I decide that since you are looking towards the future, it would be useful to talk a little about trends, to talk about global position and talk about China’s position within this long term global trend. So let me begin then. Woops, what happened? This thing’s frozen, I mean. Oh here goes. OK, I am going to address six areas. One, I wanna make some brief comments about the significance of trends. I want to talk a little about convergent ideas about tourism trends themselves, ideas that are coming together. Eh, I want to talk about a new golden age of tourism, using the past as a …, which means the forerunner to the future, eh, markets, marketing and product trends in travel and tourism. I am going to address this sustainable tourism development and point out some of the challenges that we face in the future progress in this great global industry. And finally I will make some concluding the remarks.

In some instances, it will be necessary for me to skim over things very quickly. I would love to be able…, but this is like a four-hour presentation, but we only have an hour to do this in. And so some things I will skim over very quickly. Let me begin then talking something about the significance of these trends. Anyone that’s in planning, anyone that’s in tourism must understand what trends are all about in order to do strategic planning. I sit on the Mayor’s Committee to look at the long-range development of tourism for the City and the County of Honolulu. I used to chair the State Council on Tourism Policy for the Hawaiian. And the only way we could have developed such a successful industry was that we understood what trends of the past and what’s some of the landmarks, you should know this, I point out that these are based on long term social and economic development and landmark events. Now what do I mean by that? Well, a good example is in, when you begin seeing a lots of lots of newspapers stories, alone in the 1970s about the evils of smoking for example, how cancer is caused by tobacco and so forth. The industry at that time pretty much ignored, because these are only isolated incidences. People would continue to smoke; no one would ever give up their cigarettes. Well guess what? All the sudden, hotel industry was forced to set blocks of room for non-smokers. Airlines became entire carriers no smoking. Public laws were passed where you cannot smoke in the restaurants. In Hawaii, we passed those laws about five years ago. It says, “Woo, we’ll lose our Japanese customers. They have to smoke in the restaurants.” But no! The will of the people is stronger. This is part of the social trends. Interestingly, you know, western hotels and resorts just announced a, a ban on smoking. All the hotels, 77 hotels, thousands of rooms in Canada, entire United States and in the Caribbean. A landmark event, well not all landmark events will become a trend. Some things are worn off; other things will become a trend. 9-11, 01, was one of those cases. I mean it has been the worse disasters, and more people died in the world than, you know than that. One incidence, of course it was a total tragedy in New York City. But since then, security and safety in the skies will never be the same again. The things that followed that trend, that was a landmark.

So if you don’t understand what a trend is, which things become trend, you will end up like the main factory of Scotch in Scotland, with warehouses store Scotch, that will never sell, as people began drinking less hard liquor, began drinking softer drinks, began drinking water. I spoke in a conference in Australia sponsored by the…um… That one happened to be sponsored by the New Zealand Breweries, but it took place in Australia. When I said that one-day water would outsell the alcoholic beverages, I thought the, my host, my sponsors would come up and string me by the neck. But today indeed this is true. Water does outsell alcoholic beverages. So it is very important to understand what trends we are having are affecting the industry.

Bellwether are probable futuredevelopment, what is a bellwether?Bellwethersare certain things that happen in certain states or certain countries that will foretell the future. For example, bellwether states in the United States will be Florida, California, Texas, New York. Whatever happens in those states will eventually spread through the entire United States; what happens in China will affect the entire world. China has become a bellwether country. So these are countries where you look for trends. What happens in those countries and how they would impact on both society and the industry? We need this kind of information for strategic planning. If you don’t understand the trend as I said, how can you plan 15 years from now, 20 years from now? In fact our definition of strategic planning is not what it used to be. Strategic planning man, used to plan for 25 years or 30 years in the future. Today five years is a very long time. Why? Because we are working in a very dynamic industry where changes can come almost overnight. But nonetheless, unless you do plan for the future and then you are going to have to follow the people, for sure you are not going to be the leader, you’re just going to follow whatever happens. And that is unthinkable for industries, the size and the scope of arts. And lastly, because of the dynamic, dynamism of this industry and because of all the things are happened, such as the disasters, we need to look to solutions that we used in the past, understanding what dangers are at the present, get the best minds together to put together plans for the future, contingency planning. That has become, in the old days contingency plan was not considered very important. Today we talk a lot about it.

All right, convergent ideas about tourism trends. I went back into the past, in the distance past and in the narrow past. The first book that was published by the titleMega Trends2000was by John Naisbitt & Patricia Aburdene. They had actually written a book in the late 70s, but the book that made an impact throughout the United States was thisMega Trends 2000written in 1990. Actual material was gathered in 1989, the book was published in 1990. And they pointed, they mentioned some things; they had no ideas whether this would happen but it was based on their information and analysis they had. They said there would be an emergence of free-market socialism. And one might say: “How can free market and socialism be put in the same phrase?” Well, China has certainly proved it that you can do free-market and socialism. As you move towards a global economy, or want so, government system whether capitalist, socialistic or communistic or any other kind, must then to conform to this new form of global trading. So a free market socialism, in short, if as it were in the case of China, it is a free market with Chinese flavor.

Then the author pointed out the emergence of a global lifestyle, which is being influenced by global trade, television, technology, travel and tourism. Says these are the great landmarks; these are the great events that are going to shape what we call a global lifestyle. And he predicted a number of things that doubled the air traveling between 1990 and the year 2000. Actually the authors were wrong. It did not double, but it did grow one and half times. As he pointed out that food, fashion, fun, culture imperialism, cultural nationalism, well, these things, today young people are influenced by the media, whether it is by magazines, life style magazines. Lifestyle is a big word. Or something they have seen on the television. The newest movie coming out, if the new movie is promoting certain kinds of dress or garment or food or lifestyle, since they are shown in that movie, you would be sure that young people, no matter where they live in, across the world, they would adopt this. American fast food has certainlyinfiltrated the entire world over the last 20 years. And most powerful operations are outside the United States, for instance, in Russia, they are in China. So these, these things that were forecasted have certainly become true, and become a major in scope. Well this has led a little bit to, a bit of backlash. The world began to see American television shows, the American influence in lifestyle as being intrusive. And in France for example, the use of English words on any public street or in public facilities, this was outlawed by law, no more use of English words, because we are now be seen as cultural imperialism coming from other countries.

And more recently, well from that has leapt to the rise of cultural nationalism. Every country now looking to themselves, what do we have that is also exportable, what is unique about our own culture, our own lifestyle? Culture is one the big export in tourism. And if you lose it, what do you have to sell? You don’t have any experiences to sell, nothing that is truly unique, that’s your own. Jacky Chan who is also an honorary professor at this college, at the Hotel, Catering and Tourism College at Shunde. Recently a mainland newspaper said we should stop the American, the Asian film industry should stop aping America, stop copying America. It is not appropriate. We have our own style. This is when you see an Indian film and the character is saying, “Yo man!”. This is black American speaking, so what has this got to do with India? So, so this now has, from this cultural imperialism, has led to countries doing lots of researching to find out what their own cultures are all about and finding new ways they express it. From the standpoint of tourism, this is one of the main things you have to sell. Why is Hawaii successful, more successful? In fact, Hawaii for many years, the statistics about tourism in Hawaii were so huge that they were distorted the statistics of all the Asia-Pacific, so it’s always excluded. Well, what has made the Hawaii tourism unique? It is the Polynesian culture. Yes, it is true that Hawaii is a part of the United States, but it is not the American culture that our visitors come to buy. So we unfortunately found out this quite late. We used to think, well, people come for the sun, the beach, see the pretty girl, but and maybe, you know samples are cuisine. But in the reality, it is the over-layer of Polynesian culture that makes tourism in Hawaii very successful.

(Excerpted from the remarks by Chuck Gee, Dean Emeritus of the School of

Travel Industry Management of University of Hawaii at the International Tourism and Hospitality Development Forum on December 16, 2005, as transcribed)

参考译文：

女士们、先生们，

尊敬的嘉宾们：

我很高兴能受到何校长和我的学生萝贝塔·王梁博士的邀请出席今天的论坛。王良博士是顺德职业技术学院酒店、旅游、餐饮系主任。当她邀请我到这里演讲时，我很难拒绝。尽管我几周前刚从山东回来，实在不想再飞一次，但我还是同意了。为了你们的新学校，也因为广东是我父母的出生地，我父母出生在台山。我说：“好吧，我一定要来。”我带给你们的是来自夏威夷的问候。关于今天演讲的内容，我考虑了很久。我想既然你们着眼于未来，我决定谈谈旅游业的发展趋势和中国在全球的长期发展趋势下的定位。我们首先……咦，怎么啦？这东西好像动不了了。噢，现在可以了。我总共要谈六个方面。一是简单评述一下发展趋势的重要意义；二是集中阐释关于旅游发展趋势本身的一些看法；谈谈旅游发展的黄金时期，我将回顾过去以便在未来做个出色的产业领跑者，在市场、营销和产品发展趋势方面；再谈谈旅游业的可持续发展以及全球旅游业在未来发展中面临的挑战；最后是发言总结。

有些地方我必须很快的略过。这篇演讲本应花四个小时，但现在我们只有一个小时来讲话，所以我必须很快的扫过一些地方。首先我要讲一讲趋势的重要性。旅游规划者和旅游从业人员必须了解这些趋势才能制定旅游发展的战略性规划。我在市长委员会任职期间负责制定檀香山县和檀香山市的旅游业长期发展规划。我曾是夏威夷州旅游政策委员会主席。要想成功地发展旅游业，唯一的办法就是了解过去的发展以及一些标志性的重大事件。我所指的这些是建立在社会经济长期发展和一些重大事件的基础上的。这是什么意思呢？ 一个很好的例子就是，上个世纪70年代，报纸上有很多报道是关于吸烟的害处的，例如吸烟致癌等等。那个时候，整个产业并没有给予太大的关注，因为这些报道都是些孤立的事件。人们没有因此而掐灭手中的香烟。猜猜发生了什么？似乎是一瞬间的事情，酒店设立了非吸烟客房，飞机更是全程禁烟。通过立法，人们禁止在餐馆吸烟。夏威夷于五年前通过了这一法律。有人说：“呀，我们会失去我们的日本游客，他们习惯在餐馆吸烟。”但是没有办法。人民的意志是强大的。这就是社会趋势的一部分。有意思的是西方的一些酒店和度假胜地宣布了它们的禁烟令。这涉及到了加拿大、美国全部和加勒比地区的77家酒店数以千计的客房。这是一个标志性的事件，但不是所有的标志性事件都能变成一种趋势。有些事件只能沦为历史的陈迹，有些事件则会变成一种趋势。01年的9-11事件就是这样一个趋势性事件。虽然有很多人类的灾难比9-11夺取了更多的生命，但是这一个事件，它是纽约市的悲剧。从此次事件后，航空安全就与以往不再相同了。 那么这一标志性事件就开创了一种趋势。

如果你不了解趋势，不知道什么样的事才能形成趋势，你的下场就会跟苏格兰的威士忌酿造坊一样，那里堆积了很多威士忌存货卖不出去。因为人们越来越少喝烈性酒，而开始喝软饮料、喝水。我在澳大利亚参加过一个会议，这个会议是由新西兰啤酒厂赞助的，但是在澳大利亚举行。我在会上说，终有一天，水的销量会超过酒的销量。我想，会议主办方和赞助商听了我的话肯定想冲上讲台掐住我的脖子。但是今天我的言论被证实了：水的销量确实超过了酒的销量。因此了解我们现有的发展趋势如何影响旅游产业是十分重要的。

领头羊效应会是未来发展的一种趋势。什么是领头羊？它是指发生在特定州或特定国家的特定事件，这些事件能预示着未来发展趋势。例如，美国的领头羊是佛罗里达、加利福尼亚、德克萨斯、纽约等州。这些州所发生的事情讲最终席卷整个美国。中国所发生的事情将会影响世界。中国已成为这样一个领头羊国家。因此这些国家是你们寻找趋势的地方。这些国家发生了什么？它们会如何影响我们的社会与产业？我们需要这些信息来制定战略性规划。如果你不了解这些信息，你如何制定未来15年、20年的规划？事实上我们对战略性规划的定义已与过去不同。过去战略性规划可能是制定未来25年或30年的规划，但现在5年已经是很长的时间了。为什么？因为我们投身的是一个充满动态活力的产业，变化几乎是一夕之间的事。但尽管如此，一旦你制定了计划，你所要做的就是跟随别人，当然除非你是领头人，否则你就应该跟随领头人。这对于如此规模和范围的产业来说来说是不可想象的. 最后，由于这个产业的蓬勃生命力、以及所发生的一切，就好像灾难一样。我们必须回顾过去、寻找过去所采取的方法，了解现在所面临的危机，然后集思广益为未来进行应急规划。在过去，应急性规划并不受人重视。而今我们很重视这一点。

现在集中阐释一下关于旅游发展趋势的一些观点。我将由远及近地回顾过去。我所谈到的第一本书是John Naisbitt和Patricia Aburdene合著的《2000年大趋势》。两位作者早在70年代末就出版了一本书，但真正给美国社会带来了巨大影响的则是1990年完成的《2000年大趋势》。书中材料主要是1989年收集的，但该书于1990年出版。他们在书里提到的一些事情，他们自己也不知道会否发生，但是基于他们收集的信息和分析的。他们预测会出现一个自由市场的社会主义。有人不禁会问：“自由市场如何能跟社会主义联系起来？”中国的发展已经成功地证明了自由市场的社会主义的可能性。当我们迈入全球化经济，或者打算迈入全球化经济，各个政府，不管是资本主义、社会主义还是共产主义或是其他类型的政府都应该遵守全球贸易的新变化。因此，自由市场的社会主义，在中国，它被称为中国特色的自由市场。

该书作者又预测了一种全球化生活方式的出现，这种生活方式受到了全球贸易、电视、科技和旅行的影响。这些都是具有重大影响的事件，它们塑造了一种全球化的生活方式。作者预测，在1990年到2000年之间，航空旅行的数量将会翻一番。事实上，作者猜错了。航空旅行的数量没有翻一番，而是增长了1.5倍。他还提到了食品、潮流、娱乐、文化帝国主义和文化民族主义。当今青少年的生活受到了媒体极大的影响，不管是杂志的影响，生活时尚的杂志的影响，生活时尚是一个很大的词，还有受电视的影响。新电影上映了，如果这些电影宣扬了一种特定的衣着、饮食或生活方式。由于这些是在影片中展现出来的，可以肯定的是无论这些青年身处何方，他们都会受到影响。美国快餐业在过去20年在全球遍地开花，最成功的经营都是在美国本土之外的，如：俄罗斯、中国等。这些预测的事情都变成了真实，并且产生了巨大影响，但同时也带来了一些反冲作用。这个世界认为美国电视节目里所宣扬的美国化的生活方式是一种侵略。以法国为例，在大街和公共设施上使用英文，是为法律所禁止的，不可以使用英文，因为我们现在被视作外来国家的文化帝国主义者。

最近，又从这一点跳到了文化民族主义的上升。每个国家都关注自身，寻找有什么可供出口；自己的文化和生活方式有和特点。文化是旅游输出的重要组成部分。如果失去了文化，一个国家还有什么可以输出呢？你们不再有任何东西可供输出，因为你们已经失去了你们所独有的东西。成龙也是顺德职业技术学院酒店、旅游、餐饮系的名誉教授。最近内地一家报纸指出，亚洲电影应当停止模仿美国电影，因为这是不合适的。我们有自己的特点。如果你看一部印度电影里演员说“Yo man”，你会觉得这是美国黑人的讲话方式，跟印度有什么关系？这就引发了文化帝国主义，使得国家进行研究，找出他们自身的文化内涵。从旅游业的角度来说，这是你们可供输出的重要组成部分之一。为什么夏威夷如此的成功？事实上，夏威夷的旅游数据多年来并没有列入到亚太地区的旅游数据当中，因为它太大了，如果列入就不能真实反映亚太地区的旅游状况。是什么使得夏威夷旅游独具特色？是因为它的波利尼西亚文化。尽管夏威夷是美国的一部分，但游客来不是冲着美国文化来的。不幸的是，我们很晚才发现这一点。我们曾经认为游客是冲着阳光、海滩和美女来的。但事实上，是波利尼西亚文化的外表使夏威夷旅游取得了巨大成功。

（2005年12月16日，美国夏威夷大学旅游管理学院系主任朱卓任在国际旅游与酒店业发展论坛上的讲话，节选，根据录音材料整理）